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Chronology Status
Note: this chronology is a
"living document" that will be updated as new information
comes to light.
Last update:
January 3, 2008
U.S. Nuclear Weapons Guidance
Although often seen as static and slow to change, U.S. nuclear weapons
policy is actually subject to frequent updates via guidance documents
that change the posture of the weapons and the doctrine that guide their
use. The chronology below lists the major known nuclear weapons guidance
issued by the White House and the military since the Bush administration
took office in 2001.
Year
Description
2008
June:
STRATCOM is scheduled to complete Deterrence Operations
Joint Operating Concept Version 3.0.
2007
December
18:
The White House announces that the President had approved
that the 2004 decision to reduce by "nearly 50 percent" the
DOD nuclear weapons stockpile by 2012 would be implemented
by the end of 2007. As a result, "the U.S. nuclear stockpile
will be less than one-quarter its size at the end of the
Cold War." The announcement also reaffirms that "A credible
deterrent remains an essential part of U.S. national
security, and nuclear forces remain key to meeting emerging
security challenges." (further analysis
here).
August 30:
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff issues Change 1 to
the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (CJCSI 3110.01F) 06.
July:
STRATCOM says that OPLAN 8044 Revision 05 is still in
effect, but that CONPLAN 8022 has been canceled (see also
Fall 2004 entry below).
May 4:
Defense Secretary Robert Gates states in a letter to Senator
Pete Domenici that nuclear weapons "continue to play a
critical role in the defense of the United States, its
Allies and friends. Their unique capabilities contribute in
vital and irreplaceable ways to the ability to deter
adversaries and dissuade others from pursuing nuclear
capabilities on their own....The RRW program will enable the
United States to sustain its extended deterrence commitments
to Allies...."
2006
2006:
The Secretary of Defense issues the Requirements and
Planning Document, a nuclear stockpile report.
December 20: The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff publishes CJCSI 3150.04, Nuclear Weapons Stockpile
Logistics Management and Nuclear Weapons Reports Under the
Joint Reporting Structure.
December 16: STRATCOM designated the Center for
Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (SCC-WMD) as the
"USSTRATCOM lead for WMD Interdiction mission and
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)."
December: STRATCOM published Strategic Operations
Joint Operating Concept Version 2.0. The document
"provides the conceptual framework needed to meet the 2006
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) requirements for deterrence
activities tailored for rogue powers, terrorist networks and
near-peer competitors." The central focus of the document is
to outline ways to decisively influence an adversary’s
decision-making calculus in order to prevent hostile actions
against US vital interests. The timeframe is through 2025,
and the document provides "a set of steps necessary to
operationalize deterrence planning that supports the
National Military Strategy (NMS) objective of 'Prevent
Conflict and Surprise Attacks' and the NMS requirement to
develop a wider range of options that discourage aggression
and coercion. It provides the operational context and
conceptual basis for further concept development, capability
based assessments (CBA), integrated architectures and
experimentation."
The document does not distinguish between nuclear and non-nuclear
missions, but combines both nuclear, conventional and
non-kinetic capabilities under "Global Strike" means to
directly influence an adversary's decision calculus by
tailoring deterrence operations to specific adversaries and
contexts. As such, the document focuses more than its
predecessor on how to influence different kinds of
adversaries.
Fall: USSTRATCOM published the first CONPLAN
8099 (Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction). The plan includes at least
five annexes and an "Interdiction TAB."
October: Joint Functional Component Command Global
Strike and Integration (JFCC GSI; formerly JFCC SGS) achieves
full operational capability.
October 17: JCS/NSC approves retirement of ACM and plan
to reduce ALCM force to 528 by 2012.
September 1: Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (CJCSI 3110.01F)
FY 2006 is published by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
June [estimated]: The President signs the Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Memorandumthe identifies the required
number of different nuclear warheads in the stockpile.
May 5: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signs
Unified Command Plan 06. Part of the document assigns
STRATCOM "unique responsibilities" in
coordinating the combat of WMD:
"(10) Serving as lead combatant commander for integrating and
synchronizing DOD CbtWMD [combating weapons of mass
destruction] efforts, including: (a) Planning, integrating and
synchronizing DOD CbtWMD efforts with the efforts of other
U.S. government agencies, as directed. (b) Integrating USSTRATCOM's
global missions to support combatant command and defense
agency efforts in combating WMD.
(c) In coordination with USFJCOM [Joint Forces
Command], develop and make recommendations to the chairman
regarding joint force integration, exercises and training
for CbtWMD. (d) Responsible to the chairman
for identifying and assessing readiness of U.S.
capabilities, adequacy of partner capabilities, and
capabilities of potential adversaries. (e) In coordination with the
chairman, advocating combating WMD capabilities of all
combatant commanders. (f) Supporting geographic
combatant commands and USSOCOM [Special Operations Command]
for CbtWMD planning and execution. (g) Providing military
representation to U.S. national and international agencies
for CbtWMD matters related to U.S. and multinational
campaigns, as directed. (h) Providing the single
military point of contact for CbtWMD efforts in space."
[UCP 06 excerpts are from
William Arkin's Early Warning blog]
March 20: The CJCS publishes updated guidance for
the "Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) Process
(CJCSI 3122.06B). The guidance applies to the "full
spectrum" of operations including nuclear. Replaces CJCSI
3122.06A from January 10, 2003.
March: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld is scheduled to
issue updated Strategic Planning Guidance FY06-11.
March 16: The White House publishes the 2006 National
Security Strategy. The document reaffirms the role of
nuclear weapons including in general and, if necessary, in preemptive
strikes against rogue states and terrorists armed with WMD: "Safe, credible , and reliable nuclear forces continue to
play a critical role. We are strengthening deterrence by
developing a New Triad composed of offensive strike systems
(both nuclear and improved conventional capabilities)...
These capabilities will better deter some of the new threats
we face, while also bolstering our security commitments to
allies....If necessary, however, under long-standing
principles of self-defense, we do not rule out the use of
force before attacks occur, even if uncertainty remains as
to the time and place of the enemy's attack. When the
consequences of an attack with WMD are potentially so
devastating, we cannot afford to stand idle by as grave
dangers materialize. This is the principle and logic of
preemption."
February 12: The Joint Chiefs of Staff publishes the
Military Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Surprisingly, the strategy doesn't mention
Global Strike with one word, but instead describes
capability-based planning and the wide spectrum of
capabilities that flow from the concept. Offensive
operations are defined as: Offensive
operations may include kinetic (both conventional and
nuclear) and/or non-kinetic options (e.g., information
operations) to deter or defeat a WMD threat or subsequent
use of WMD." STRATCOM's operational implementation of
the WMD strategy is CONPLAN 8099 and scheduled for
completion in late 2006.
February 6: Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld released the Quadrennial
Defense Review. The review states: "For prompt global
strike, capabilities will be available to attack fixed, hard
and deeply buried, mobile and re-locatable targets with
improved accuracy anywhere in the world promptly upon the
President’s order. Nuclear weapons will be accurate, safe
and reliable, and tailored to meet modern deterrence
requirements."
The QDR also elevates China to the top of the scale for large
military threats: "Of the major and emerging powers, China
has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the
United States and field disruptive military technologies
that could over time off set traditional U.S. military
advantages absent U.S. counter strategies."
The QDR revalidated the 2001 the NPR’s planning assumptions,
"although conditions are trending toward−if anything−a more
stressing strategic landscape, for example, with respect to
North Korea, Iran and nuclear proliferation."
January 26: The STRATCOM Center for Combating
WMD (SCC-WMD) achieves Initial Operational Capability (IOC)
at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency in Ft. Belvoir,
Virginia. The mission statement says: "The Center will
integrate and synchronize DoD efforts to combat WMD in
support of US government objectives. The Center will develop
and maintain global situational awareness of WMD activities,
advocate for combating WMD capabilities, and assist with WMD
planning, while shifting emphasis from DoD-centric
approaches toward interagency solutions."
Early 2006: CJCS is scheduled to publish
updated
Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations (Joint Pub 3-12). However, this and three
other Joint Pub nuclear documents are
canceled instead.
2005
2005: The DOD completes a Strategic Capabilities
Assessment of the 2001 NPR which concludes that "the NPR’s
planning assumptions remain valid, although conditions are
trending toward−if anything−a more stressing strategic
landscape, for example, with respect to North Korea, Iran
and nuclear proliferation."
December 2005: DID guidance instructs STRATCOM and
Air Force to study the nuclear cruise missile structure and
design a retirement schedule for the missiles.
November 18: Joint Functional Component Command Space
and Global Strike (JFCC SGS) achieves Initial Operational
Capability.
September: The Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Memorandum
is published.
June: A U.S. Navy admiral says that SSBNs are
currently tasked under both OPLAN 8044 and CONPLAN 8022.
March 18: Change 1 to JSCP-N FY05
(CJCSI 3110.04B)
is published by
the CJCS. (For structure of previous JSCP-N, go
here.) This document includes guidance for OPLAN/CONPLAN
planning to combat WMD.
March 1: President Bush signs Unified Command Plan
2004. The plans assigns to STRATCOM the mission of
coordinating the Pentagon’s efforts to combating Weapons of
Mass Destruction. In response, STRATCOM begins development
of Concept Plan (CONPLAN) 8099.
February 2: JCS Chairman General Myers signs the
Warning Order for STRATCOM's new mission to coordinate DOD's
combat of weapons of mass destruction.
January 6: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signs
a memorandum that tasks STRATCOM to spearhead the Pentagon's
efforts against weapons of mass destruction. "I assign
CDRUSSTRATCOM as the lead combatant commander for
integrating and synchronizing DoD in combating WMD."
January 10:
CJCS issues Global Strike Joint Integrating Concept, Version 1.
Fall: CONPLAN 8022 is withdrawn by STRATCOM commander
General Cartwright.
October 1:OPLAN 8044 Revision 05 becomes
effective. According to the Pentagon, this was a "major
revamping" of the U.S. strategic war plan which, among other
issues, included the "integration of conventional strike
options into [the] OPLAN." Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard B. Myers further
explained,
"STRATCOM has revised our strategic
deterrence and response plan that became effective in the
fall of 2004. This revised, detailed plan provides more
flexible options to assure allies, and dissuade, deter,
and if necessary, defeat adversaries in a wider range of
contingencies."
August 17: STRATCOM publishes Global Strike Interim
Capability Operations Order (OPORD).
July 8: STRATCOM commander General E. Cartwright informs
Congress that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
"just signed the Interim Global
Strike Alert Order, which provides the
President a prompt, global strike capability." The Alert
Order directs the Air Force and Navy to put CONPLAN 8022
into effect on selected strike platforms including
long-range bombers and strategic submarines.
July
6: The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff issued an
updated Guidance for the Sanitation and Distribution of SIOP
Information to SACEUR, United Kingdom Liaison Cell;
Director, Strategic Weapon Systems; and United Kingdom
Strategic Targeting Center (CJCSI 3231.04C).
The directive removes the former requirement to restrict SIOP (now
OPLAN 8044) targeting information east of 73 degrees East
longitude. It also identifies the personnel and operating
locations that are authorized to receive OPLAN 8044
information: SACEUR; non-US SHAPE personnel; United Kingdom
Liaison Cell (UKLC) personnel at STRATCOM; the Director of
Strategic Weapon System at Bath in the United Kingdom; and
the United Kingdom Strategic Targeting Center (UKSTC) at the
Ministry of Defence in London.
June 30: The Chairman Joint Chief of Staff
signs the Global Strike ALERTORD (Alert Order). The document
orders STRATCOM to activate CONPLAN 8022 to provide the
President with a day-to-day preemptive strike option. The
classified order contains in excess of 23 paragraphs. In
response, preparation of a Global Strike OPORDER (Operations
Order) is begun to implement the Alert Order pending
completion of the CONPLAN.
Summer:
President George W. Bush signs a Presidential Decision
Directive that orders STRATCOM to "extend Global Strike to
counter all HDBTs [Hard and Deeply Buried Targets] to
include both tactical and strategic adversarial targets."
June: The new Stockpile Plan is announced by the National Nuclear
Security Administration.
May:
White House issues National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD)
35, "Nuclear
Weapons Deployment Authorization," which authorizes deployment of
tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.
May: White House issues National Security Presidential Directive
(NSPD) 34, "Fiscal
Year 2004-2012 Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Plan,"
which "directs a force structure through 2012" and cuts the total
stockpile "almost in half."
May 24: Air Combat
Command publishes Global Strike CONOPS.
April 19: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld issues NUWEP (Nuclear
Weapons Employment Policy). The document states in part: "U.S. nuclear
forces must be capable of, and be seen to be capable of, destroying
those critical war-making and war-supporting assets and capabilities
that a potential enemy leadership values most and that it would rely on
to achieve its own objectives in a post-war world."
March 15: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld issues Strategic Planning
Guidance, Fiscal Years 2006-2011.
March 13: CJCS issues National Military Strategy of the United
States, including the classified Annex B (Nuclear).
November: The first CONPLAN (Concept Plan) 8022 (Global
Strike) is completed by STRATCOM.
August: The Bush administration completes a Nuclear
Posture Review, the second since taking office in 2001. The
Review acknowledges that nuclear forces have a reduced but
still essential role in U.S. national security. It calls for
a transformation of the nuclear weapons stockpile and
production complex through replacement of part of or all
existing nuclear weapons types with so-called Reliable
Replacement Warheads.
June: White House issues National Security Presidential Directive
(NSPD) 28, "United States Nuclear Weapons Command and Control, Safety,
and Security." The guidance "provides direction on various nuclear
issues, to include security."
June 4: STRATCOM issues CONPLAN 8022-02, Strategic Concept
draft.
March: Undersecretary of Defense (Policy),
Douglas Feith,
signs the "Nuclear Posture Review:
Implementation Plan, DOD Implementation of the December 2001 Nuclear
Posture Review Report to Congress."
March 1: Operations Plan 8044 Revision 03 enters into effect,
the first to use the new name OPLAN 8044 instead of the
Single Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) used since 1961 (for
name change, see here).
The new name reflects major changes made to the strategic nuclear
war plan since the end of the Cold War, and that "USSTRATCOM
is changing the nation's nuclear war plan from a single,
large, integrated plan to a family of plans applicable in a
wider range of scenarios."
Revision 03 is a transitional step toward the New Triad and future
war plans. Notable changes include new executable scenario
driven strike options against regional states (North Korea,
Libya and Iran), changing the attack structure to increase
strike execution flexibility, and more streamlined National
Target Base and options.
Implementation of SIOP 03 necessitated "grooming" of weapons
to optimize performance and improve confidence of mission
success.
January 10: The CJCS publishes updated guidance
for the "Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) Process
(CJCSI 3122.06A). The guidance applies to the "full
spectrum" of operations including nuclear. Replaces CJCSI
3122.06 from September 3, 2002.
January
10: President Bush signs Change 2 to the
Unified Command Plan (UCP), which assigns four emerging missions to
STRATCOM: missile defense, global strike, information operations, and
global C4ISR. The directive identifies global strike as "a capability to
deliver rapid, extended range, precision kinetic (nuclear
and conventional) and non-kinetic (elements of space and
information operations) effects in support of theater and
national objectives."
2002
December 16: White House issues National Security Presidential Directive
(NSPD) 23, "National Policy on Ballistic Missile Defense."
December 10: White House issues
"National
Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," the unclassified
version of National Security Presidential Directive
(NSPD) 17. The wording in NSPD 17 of using "potentially nuclear weapons"
is replaced with "all of our options."
October 1: STRATCOM and SPACECOM stand down and
are merged into a "new" STRATCOM, which STRATCOM
subsequently described as "a
truly global command with worldwide responsibilities for a
new strategic environment." STRATCOM further explained:
"Just as adaptive nuclear planning was a recognized command
strength of the last decade, flexibility in meeting global
space, land, and sea challenges with a wide range of options
will facilitate transformation of strategic deterrence and
war fighting to meet and defeat new and ever changing
strategic challenges."
October 1:
The updated Single Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) 03
enters into effect. This is the last strategic war plan to
use the SIOP name. (for
name change, see here) October 1: CJCS issues Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan FY 2002
(CJCSI 3110.01E), which includes a nuclear supplement (CJCSI 3110.04B). (see
the structure of CJCSI 3110.04B)
September 17: White House issues the National
Security Strategy of the United States. The document publicly formulates
a more proactive preemption doctrine:
"We must be prepared to stop rogue states and their
terrorist clients before they are able to threaten
or use weapons of mass destruction against the
United States and our allies and friends....The
greater the threat, the greater the risk of inaction
– and the more compelling the case for taking
anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if
uncertainty remains as to the time and place of our
enemy’s attack. To forestall or prevent such hostile
acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if
necessary, act preemptively....To support preemptive
actions, we will…continue to transform out military
forces to ensure our ability to conduct rapid and
precise operations to achieve decisive results."
September 14: White House issues National Security Presidential
Directive (NSPD) 17, "National
Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction" (NSPD 17/HSPD 4). The document states:
"The United States will make clear that it reserves the right to
respond with overwhelming force – including potentially nuclear weapons
– to the use of [weapons of mass destruction] against the United States,
our forces abroad, and friends and allies." "Nuclear forces alone…cannot ensure deterrence against [weapons of
mass destruction] and missiles. Complementing nuclear forces with an
appropriate mix of conventional response and defense capabilities,
coupled with effective intelligence, surveillance, interdiction and
domestic law-enforcement capabilities, reinforces our overall deterrence
posture against [weapons of mass destruction] threats."
A top-secret appendix to NSPD 17 specifically
names Iran, Syria, North Korea
and Libya among the countries that are the central focus of
the new U.S. strategy. A senior administration official
briefing reporters on the new strategy, says the options
include nuclear weapons. The motivation for the new
strategy, according to one participant in the interagency
process that drafted it, was the conclusion that
"traditional nonproliferation has failed, and now we’re
going into active interdiction."
The Joint Chiefs of Staff
further explains that NSPD 17 "outlines a comprehensive
approach to counter nuclear and other WMD. The strategy has
three principal pillars:
(1) Counterproliferation to Combat WMD Use – recognizing that the
possession and increased likelihood of WMD use by hostile
states and terrorists are realities of the contemporary
security environment.
(2) Strengthened Nonproliferation to Combat WMD Proliferation –
determined to undertake every effort to prevent states and
terrorists from acquiring WMD and missiles.
(3) Consequence Management to Respond to WMD Use – to reduce to the
extent possible the potentially horrific consequences of WMD
use at home and abroad."
September 3: The CJCS publishes guidance for the
Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) process (CJCSI
3122.06). The guidance establishes a formal process for
determining sensitive targets where the physical damage and
collateral effects on non-combatant persons, property, and
environments "occurring incidental to military operations
exceed established national-level notification thresholds."
Sensitive targets do not need to be collateral damage
related but may also include those targets which exceed
national-level rules of engagement, or where the combatant
commander determines the target may have adverse political
ramifications.
STAR governs two types of planning: deliberate planning for
CJCS-directed contingency plans or standing combatant
command operation plans in concept format (CONPLANs) and
operation plans (OPLANs); crisis operations planning such as
Global Strike missions. STAR applies to the "full spectrum" of operations including
nuclear.
August 29: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signs NUWEP
Transitional Guidance that directs changes to the Nuclear
Weapons Employment Policy (NUWEP).
June 28: White House
issues National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) 14, "Nuclear
Weapons Planning Guidance." The directive lays out Presidential
nuclear weapons planning guidance and provides broad
overarching directions to the agencies and commands for
nuclear weapon planning. The directive triggered changes to
the NUWEP and creation of OPLAN 8044 Revision 03.
June 28:
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld issues 2002 Contingency Planning Guidance.
June 4: CJCS signs JSCP Transitional Guidance that
directs changes to the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan.
May 3:
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld issues Defense Planning Guidance.
The new DPG calls for better American capability to strike
"hardened and deeply buried targets" in three rogue nations
simultaneously. This includes building up special operations
capabilities, cyber-warfare, as well as
accelerating the development of a "survivable" earth
penetrator fitted with an existing nuclear warhead.
May: President George W. Bush "directs
the Secretary of Defense to develop the capability to hold
all potential adversarial targets at risk, as an integral
part of the nation's policy of deterrence." January 8:
The Nuclear Posture Review is officially published.
2001
December 31: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld forwards the Nuclear
Posture Review (NPR) report to Congress. Among specifying conditions and
capabilities for the future U.S. nuclear posture, the NPR also includes excerpts from other planning documents: FY04
Defense Planning Guidance and FY03-07 Future Years Defense
Plan.
The FY04 DPG
[Defense Planning Guidance] will provide guidance to
coordinate and deconflict requirements for nuclear and
non nuclear systems." The "initiatives reflected in the proposed FY03-07 Future Years
Defense Plan (FYDP) include:
(1) Mobile and Relocatable Targets. DoD proposed to develop
a systems-level approach, applied across the Services,
for holding at risk critical mobile targets.
(2) Defeating Hard and
Deeply-Buried Targets. DoD would implement a program to
improve significantly the means to locate, identify,
characterize, and target adversarial hard and deeply buried
targets.
(3) Long Range Strike. DoD will
pursue a systems level approach to defeat critical fixed and
mobile targets at varying ranges, in all terrain and weather
conditions, and in denied areas.
(4) Guided Missile Submarines
(SSGNs). DoD has proposed to fund the conversion of four SSBNs, withdrawn from the strategic nuclear service, to SSGN
configuration.
(4) Precision Strike. Effort to
increase the number of targets than can be attacked on a
single mission. Elements include a 'Multifunction
Information Distribution System' to provide 'a
jam-resistant, secure, digital network for exchange of
critical information for strike capabilities,' a 'Joint
Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile,' A 'Small Diameter Bomb,'
and the 'Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle.'
(5) A New Strike System. "DoD will begin in FY03 to explore
concepts for a new strike system that might arm the
converted SSGNs. Desired capabilities for this new strike
weapon include timely arrival on target, precision, and the
ability to be retargeted rapidly."
October 1: The updated Single Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP)
02 enters into effect.
September 30: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld issues the
Quadrennial
Defense Review (QDR) Report.
May: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld publishes the Strategic Defense
Review (SDR). This document, among other things, sets "requirements for
the number and types of weapons in the stockpile."
January: U.S. Strategic Command
publishes OPLAN 8044-98 (SIOP).
