publications

Below is a list of selected articles and reports I have written and co-authored over the years. Most of the items are in PDF-format and require Adobe Acrobat reader to view.

Note: While the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is transitioning to a new web site design,
older Nuclear Notebooks may not be available. Check here.

My articles on the FAS Strategic Security Blog are available here.

NOTE: As of January 2008, new items will be posted here.

2007:

• "Nuclear Cruise Missiles," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2007.
• "A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on Nuclear Weapons Alert, Dismantlements and Reductions," October 19, 2007. Available via Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy.
• U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe After the Cold War, briefing to Nuclear Proliferation: History and Current Problems conference, Florence University, October 4-5, 2007
• "The U.S. nuclear stockpile, today and tomorrow" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2007.
• "U.S. Strategic War Planning After 9/11," Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, July 2007.
• "World Nuclear Forces, 2007," SIPRI Yearbook, pp. 514-551.
• "Indian Nuclear Forces, 2007," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2007.
• "Dismantling fewer, not more, nukes," Los Angeles Times (letter to the editor), June 11, 2007.
• "Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2007," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2007.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2007," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2007.
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2007," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2007.

2006:

• "Where the Bombs are, 2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2006.
• Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning, FAS/NRDC, November 2006.
• Briefing: "New and Traditional Security Threats to Russia, and the Utility of Nuclear Weapons," September 12, 2006. Presentation to WSI-ISS meeting Emerging Nuclear Weapons Policies: An Opportunity to Increase Dialogue, Washington, D.C., October 12-13, 2006 (NOTE: PDF, 0.86 MB)
• "Nuclear Threats: Then and Now," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2006.
• "World Nuclear Forces," SIPRI Yearbook 2006, Swedish International Peace Research Institute, July 2006.
• "U.S. National Security Strategy and Pre-emption," Défense Nationale (France), No. 7, July 2006. (English version is free but French version requires password)
• "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 2006," Bulletin of the American Scientists, July/August 2006.
• "Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2006," Bulletin of the American Scientists, May/June 2006.
• "Global Strike: A Chronology of the Pentagon's New Offensive Strike Plan," March 15, 2006.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2006," Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2006.
• "Chinese Nuclear Forces," Imaging Notes, Winter 2006.
• "US Nuclear Forces, 2006," Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February, 2006.

2005:

• "Preparing for the Failure of Deterrence," Royal Canadian Military Institute SITREP Vol. 65, No. 6, November/December 2005.
• "British Nuclear Forces, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December, 2005.
• "New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge," Arms Control Today, September 2005.
• "Indian Nuclear Forces, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October, 2005.
• "French Nuclear Forces, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2005.
• "World Nuclear Forces," SIPRI Yearbook 2005, June 7, 2005.
• Briefing to Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University, "Nuclear Mission Creep," May 11, 2005.
• "Who's Keeping the Nuclear Weapons in Europe?," armscontrolwonk.com, May 2, 2005.
• "North Korea's Nuclear Program, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005. [link dead]
• Briefing to members of the Belgian and Dutch Parliaments on the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, March 1, 2005.
• Briefing to members of the German Parliament (Bundestag) on the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, February 25, 2005.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2005.
• "U.S. Nuclear Weapons In Europe," Natural Resources Defense Council, February 2005.
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2005," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2005.

2004:

• "U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 1954-2004," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2004.
• "What's Behind Bush's Nuclear Cuts," Arms Control Today, October 2004.
• "Nuclear Insecurity: A Critique of the Bush Administration's Nuclear Weapons Policies," Natural Resources Defense Council, September 2004.
  
• "World Nuclear Forces," Appendix 15A to SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, September 2004).
• "U.S. nuclear reductions," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August/September 2004.
• Briefing: "US Nuclear Policy and World Nuclear Situation," presented to the 59th Gensuikin conference in Tokyo, August 1, 2004.
• Briefing: "U.S. Nuclear Posture in Korea," presented to the 59th Gensuikin conference in Tokyo, August 1, 2004.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2004," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2004.
• "Too Many, Too Slow: The Bush administration's stockpile reduction plan," NRDC Fact Sheet, June 2004.
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2004," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2004.
• "Nuclear Disclosure: A Danger to National Security?," PRIME No. 19, (PRIME, International Peace Research Institute, Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo), March 2004 (see PDF-version).
• "The Protection Paradox," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2004.
• "Dismantling U.S. Nuclear Warheads," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2004.
  
  Note: Links to Nuclear Notebooks prior to 2004 will be updated as they become available on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' new web site.

2003:

• "Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2003," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2003.
• "Nuclear Pursuits," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2003.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2003," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2003.
• "World Nuclear Forces as of January 2003," Appendix 15A to SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, July 2003). (Full pdf-version available here).
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2003," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2003.
• "North Korea's Nuclear Program, 2003," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2003.
• "Changing Targets II," Greenpeace International, April 2003.
• "The B61 Family of Bombs," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2003.

2002:

• "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2002," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2002.
• "Israeli Nuclear Forces, 2002," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002.
• "Preemptive Posturing," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002.
• "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2002," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2002.
• "Nuclear arms agreement is step backward," Oakland Tribune, May 26, 2002.
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2002," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2002.
• "India's Nuclear Forces, 2002," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2002.
• "Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2001," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2002.

2001:

• "British Nuclear Forces, 2001," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2001.
• "The Unruly Hedge: Cold War Thinking at the Crawford Summit," Arms Control Today, December 2001.
• "Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2001," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2001.
• "French Nuclear Forces, 2001," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2001.
• "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2001," NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2001.
• "The Matrix of Deterrence: U.S. Strategic Command Force Structure Studies," The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, May 2001.

2000:

• "U.S. Nuclear Strategy Reform in the 1990s," The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, March 2000. This report was also translated and published by the International Peace Research Institute at the Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo.

1999:

• "Secrecy on a Sliding Scale," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 1999, p. 33.
• "NATO Nuclear Policy: Back To The Future," The Monitor, Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia, September 1999.
• "Japan Under the Nuclear Umbrella: U.S. Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War Planning in Japan During the Cold War," The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, July 1999.
• "The Post Cold War SIOP and Nuclear Warfare Planning: A Glossary, Abbreviations, and Acronyms," National Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC, January 1999.

1998 and earlier:

• "Dangerous Directions," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 1998.
• "Nuclear Futures: Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and U.S. Nuclear Strategy," British American Security Information Council (BASIC), Washington, DC, March 1998.
• "Targets of Opportunity," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 1997.
• "The USA and Counter-Proliferation: A New and Dubious Role for U.S. Nuclear Weapons," Security Dialogue, Oslo, Norway, December 1996.
• "The 520 Forgotten Bombs: How U.S. and British Nuclear Weapons in Europe Undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty," Greenpeace International, April 18, 1995.
• "Changing Targets: Nuclear Planning from the Cold War to the Third World," Greenpeace International, March 1995 (with Joshua Handler).

I also co-authored the following two Neptune Papers monographs for Greenpeace International:

• "Aircraft Carriers: The Limits of Nuclear Power," Neptune Papers No. 7, Greenpeace, Washington, D.C., June 1994 (1.9 MB).
  The report analyzes the performance of nuclear-powered versus cheaper oil-powered aircraft carriers and compare actual performance with the U.S. Navy's claims of unique benefits from nuclear propulsion. A review in the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings called the study "invaluable" to the assessment of the U.S. Navy's carrier building program and stressed that the report "should be read by everyone in the administration, Department of Defense, and Congress who will participate in decisions related to future carrier programs." The report’s conclusions were reaffirmed by the U.S. General Accounting Office's report Navy Aircraft Carriers: Cost-Effectiveness of Conventionally and Nuclear-Powered Carriers from 1998.

• "U.S. Naval Nuclear Weapons in Sweden," Neptune Papers No. 6, Greenpeace, Washington, D.C., October 1990 (3.4 MB).
  The report investigates Swedish non-nuclear policy and the nuclear history of U.S. Navy ship visits to Swedish (and other Scandinavian) ports during the Cold War. The report documents how U.S. warships as a matter of routine brought nuclear weapons into Swedish ports despite the country’s ban against such weapons. The U.S. government turned down a request from the Swedish government to comment on the findings and the Swedish ruling party subsequently decided to enforce its non-nuclear policy during port visits, similar to that of New Zealand. Before the decision was carried out, the U.S. government suddenly announced in September 1991 that all tactical nuclear weapons would be removed from ships and submarines.