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Front Page News Items From 2007
The U.S. nuclear
weapons stockpile is shrinking compared to the Cold
War, but the post-Cold War stockpile will remain
large under current plans.
From the world of nuclear weapons
book keeping... White House
Announces (Secret) Nuclear Weapons Cuts
(December 18, 2007) The
White House announced that the administration will
complete reduction of the stockpile "by nearly 50
percent" in two weeks instead of in five years. Another
15 percent, government officials added, will be
accomplished by 2012. Unfortunately the details are
secret, so officials can neither say how many weapons
will be retired nor how big the stockpile is. Read my
analysis
here.
New Nuclear Strike
Plans Added
Expansion of nuclear targeting
policy during the Bush administration documented
White House Guidance Created New Nuclear Strike
Plans Against Proliferators, Document Shows
(November 5, 2007) The
2001 Nuclear Posture Review and White House guidance
issued after the terrorist attacks on September 11,
2001, caused the U.S. Strategic Command to add a
series of new strike options against "rogue states"
to the main U.S. strategic nuclear war plan,
according to a military planning document
declassified and released to the Federation of
American Scientists. Read the story
here.
Chinese nuclear modernization Two More Chinese
Submarines Spotted
(October 4, 2007) China
appears to have launched two more new Jin-class
(Type 094) ballistic missile submarines at the Bohai
shipyard in Huludao some 400 km east of Beijing. The
images were discovered by FAS during analysis of
commercial satellite images on Google Earth. A third
submarine image was discovered in July 2007. For more information, go
here.
More Chinese SSBNs Appear
B-52 with Advanced
Cruise Missiles
Breakdown of
Nuclear Command and Control?
Nuclear Weapons Mistakenly Flow On Nuclear Bomber
(September 5, 2007) A
U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber apparently flew from
Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota to Barksdale
Air Force Base in Louisiana with five nuclear-armed
Advanced Cruise Missiles under its wings. The U.S.
has several computerized systems in place to ensure
control of individual nuclear weapons. Read my blog
here
and Washington Post story
here.
New Information Released About W76
Warhead Program Submarine Warhead
Production Plan More Than Doubled
(August 30, 2007) The
Bush administration has decided to more than double
the production of W76 warheads undergoing an
expensive life-extension upgrade to arm the Navy's
14 ballistic missile submarines for the next three
decades. The increased program will produce an
estimated 2,000 W76-1 warheads between 2007 and
2021. For more information, go
here.
Cold War targeting - or
just targeting?
What History Tells Us About Targeting Missile Defenses
Targeting Missile Defenses
(July 19, 2007) The
uproar over Russia's threat to target a U.S.
ballistic missile defense system in Europe with
nuclear weapons, while understandable, shows that
many live under the illusion that such planning has
somehow stopped after the Cold War. But targeting
missile defenses is actually a high-priority mission
going back four decades. Read the story
here.
From the
World of Public Intelligence China Reorganizes
Northern Nuclear Launch Sites
(July 12, 2007) China
has reorganized its launch sites for nuclear
missiles near Delingha in the northern part of
central China. The reorganization shows possible
deployment of DF-21 missile launchers within range of Russian
ICBM-fields and bases. For more information, go
here.
Reorganization of
Chinese nuclear missile launch sites in
central China shows possible deployment of DF-21
launchers
Nuclear Weapons Quietly Leave Ramstein
Air Base
Germany
Nearly Nuclear-Free US Withdraws
Nuclear Weapons From Main German Base
(July 9, 2007) The
U.S. Air Force appears to have quietly removed
nuclear weapons from its main base at Ramstein in
Germany, leaving only one nuclear base in the
country. The removal reduces the estimated number of
U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe from approximately
440 to around 350, an arsenal roughly the size of
the entire French nuclear arsenal. The remaining
weapons are deployed at seven bases in six NATO
countries. Read the story
here.
From the
World of Public Intelligence
First Chinese Jin-Class Strategic Submarine Spotted
(July 5, 2007)
During analysis of commercial satellite images on
GoogleEarth, I spotted what appears to be the
first unit of the long-awaited new Chinese Jin-class
(Type 094) ballistic missile submarine. With all
eyes on China as the primary new adversary, rumors
fly about construction of five boats with multiple
warhead missiles. So far the Pentagon's prediction
is more modest. For more information, go
here.
New Chinese nuclear
ballistic
missile submarine spotted
World Nukes on the Map
Newsweek/MSNBC Use Nukes Research
(July 2, 2007) A call from
Newsweek about the world's nuclear weapons
arsenals has turned into this neat interactive
chart on the MSNBC web site. The total
inventory: Approximately 26,000 nuclear warheads
with a combined yield of roughly 3,000 megatons (the
equivalent of 238,748 Hiroshima-type bombs).
Satellite Image Shows Next Phase
in Pakistan-India Arms Race Pakistani Nuclear Missiles Fitting Out
(May 9, 2007) A satellite
image appears to show 15 Shaheen 2 medium-range
ballistic missile launchers under preparation for
service at Pakistan's National Defense Complex near
Islamabad. The image was discovered during research
in preparation for the
Nuclear Notebook in the May/June issue of the
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Analysis of
the image is available on the
FAS blog.
Nuclear missile
launchers fitting out
at National Defense Complex
New fact sheet outlines
status and history of US nuclear weapons stockpile:
challenging government secrecy
Joint FAS/NRDC fact sheet
published
Estimates of the US Nuclear Stockpile
(May 2, 2007) The
US nuclear stockpile includes approximate 9,930
nuclear warheads, and is projected to decrease to
just over 5,000 warheads by the end of 2012,
according to a fact sheet published by FAS and NRDC.
For more information, go
here.
From the Cold War Clean-up
Department US to Retire Advanced Cruise Missile
(March 7, 2007)
The U.S. Air Force has decided to scrap its newest
and most capable nuclear cruise missile, the
Advanced Cruise Missile. The Air Force FY2008 budget
request terminates operational funding in 2008, and
the Air Force subsequently confirmed that the
missile will be scrapped as part of the drawdown of
forces under the SORT agreement. Read the
FAS blog
and check the
news stories.
Advanced Cruise Missile
to be scrapped
The Bulava sea-launched
ballistic
missile suffered three consecutive
test failures. Even so, the Russian
navy plans to increase the
number
of Bulava-equipped subs
New Nuclear
Notebook published in the Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists
Russian Nuclear Forces, 2007
(March 1, 2007) At
the beginning of 2007, Russia deployed approximately
5,670 nuclear warheads,
including roughly 3,340 strategic warheads and
approximately 2,330 warheads for shorter-range
weapons. Official statements about the importance of
nuclear weapons were accompanied by the first
operational deployment of the mobile Topol-M ICBM,
return of five strategic submarines to sea to
demonstrate a limited capability to conduct
deterrent patrols, and announcements that Russia
will deploy multiple warheads on its new ballistic
missiles when the START treaty expires in 2009. See
also
blog with analysis.
Hard-to-get
information obtained from the US Navy
Chinese Submarine Patrols: 2 in 2006!
(February 6, 2007)
Discoveries made by US satellites flying over China,
submarines lurking off Chinese naval bases, and
spies on the ground are frequently used in leaks to
the news media that China has launched yet another
submarine. But one of their consistent discoveries
has never made it into the headlines: China's large
submarine fleet is not very active. Only two patrols
conducted in 2006 (and none in 2005). Read about the
surprising discovery
here.
Newly declassified
information tells us
something surprising new about the Chinese submarine
fleet: It is not very active
